Brent crude crossed the $100-per-barrel threshold on Thursday as Iran intensified military strikes against energy infrastructure across the Middle East, sending shockwaves through global financial markets. The attacks followed escalating exchanges between Iran, Israel, and the United States, with no signs of an immediate ceasefire. Investors reacted with alarm as critical shipping lanes came under direct threat.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments pass, has remained effectively closed since hostilities erupted on February 28. Saudi Arabia’s state energy company Aramco warned of catastrophic consequences for world markets if the strait stays blocked. The disruption compounded fears of a prolonged supply crisis with few easy solutions.
Iranian forces struck merchant vessels near the strait, with the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree among those hit, leaving three crew members believed trapped. Iraq suspended all operations at its oil export ports following attacks on two nearby tankers. Oman moved all vessels away from its main crude export terminal at Mina Al Fahal after drone strikes hit a nearby port.
The International Energy Agency coordinated the largest emergency reserve release in its history, with its 32 member nations unanimously agreeing to release 400 million barrels. The United States announced it would contribute 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with deliveries beginning within a week over approximately 120 days.
Despite these efforts, Brent settled around $98 a barrel, up roughly 6% on the day. Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel. Deutsche Bank warned that investors are increasingly pricing in a prolonged conflict, raising the specter of a stagflationary shock not seen in decades.