US oil prices are bracing for continued volatility as the military campaign against Iran stretches into its third week, with petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan forecasting that pump prices could hit $3.85 per gallon by Monday. The ongoing conflict has already sent shockwaves through energy markets, pushing the national average up by nearly 23% in under three weeks. Consumers across the country are feeling the pinch as the situation shows no signs of stabilizing.
The crisis traces back to February 28, when the US and Israel launched their first coordinated strikes on Iran. Since then, the average cost of regular gasoline has surged from below $3 per gallon to approximately $3.70. The rapid escalation has disrupted global oil supply chains in ways not witnessed in recent memory.
On Friday, US forces conducted strikes on Kharg Island, a critical Iranian oil processing facility, further tightening global energy supplies. Iran has retaliated by blocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes daily. Brent crude climbed to $106 per barrel early Monday before retreating to $103, while US crude dipped to $94 after briefly touching $100 on Sunday.
The consequences for American consumers have been dramatic, particularly in California where averages have exceeded $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations are charging more than $8. Diesel prices could climb to between $5.05 and $5.15 per gallon nationwide. Exxon CEO Darren Woods personally warned White House officials that further supply disruptions and speculative trading could push prices even higher.
Wall Street opened Monday on an optimistic note following temporary oil price relief, with the S&P 500 gaining about 1% by mid-morning. However, uncertainty remains deeply embedded in market psychology. The economic outlook for the coming weeks hinges largely on whether Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping traffic.